What the Short-Term Energy Outlook Tells us About Fall Prices

 

On August 9, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest version of the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The report indicates a projected 22.09% drop in heating degree-days in quarter 3 and quarter 4 of 2016, compared to 2015. During this time frame, heating oil prices are also projected to be down. Full pricing projections through 2017 can be seen below:

 

Short-Term Energy Outlook

 

Other notable information in the Short-Term Energy Outlook includes:

 

  • Consumption of distillate fuel, which includes diesel fuel and heating oil, is expected to fall by 100,000 b/d (2.4%) in 2016, after falling by 60,000 b/d (1.5%) in 2015.

 

  • Falling distillate consumption in 2016 is the result of relatively warm winter temperatures, reduced oil and natural gas drilling (which uses diesel fuel in its operations), and declining coal production, which has reduced diesel use in rail shipments of coal.

 

  • Stronger expected economic growth in 2017 contributes to forecast distillate fuel consumption growth of 60,000 b/d (1.6%).

Heating Oil Retail Priece Projections
 

An updated EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report will be released on September 7w. For a report summary or to access the full report, visit the EIA website.



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